Friday, November 16, 2007

Friday challenge

Which one of these six jurisdictions will be the first to abolish the death penalty? Which will be the last?

1. Alabama
2. China
3. Iran
4. Oklahoma
5. Saudi Arabia
6. Texas

My prediction, in order of first to abolish the death penalty to last:

1. China
2. Iran
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. Alabama
6. Saudi Arabia

Several notes:

1. Some folks might wonder why I am placing Texas ahead of Oklahoma and Alabama. Is it bias because Texas is my home state? No. At least I don't think so. My operational theory here is that Texas is making so, so many mistakes in every imaginable way, that state legislators will suspend all executions either indefinitely or permanently simply out of sheer embarrassment. Oklahoma and Alabama are making mistakes as well, but on a smaller scale. Texas is, after all, the second most populous state in the nation.

2. Some may wonder if I am being incredibly pessimistic here, saying that China and Iran will abolish the death penalty before Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama. Not really. Rather, I am being quite optimistic for China and Iran. I think things are going to happen in those two countries that will cause a cessation of executions in just a few years. The one jurisdiction I am VERY pessimitic about is Saudi Arabia. Even if the royal family is overthrown, which I think it inevitably will be, I believe sharia will remain the law of the land. Iran has tasted secularism; Saudi Arabia has not.

1 comment:

Jeanne said...

I think you're being WAY too optimistic about China, but maybe that's just me. I'd be happy to see it happen, but I think it's unlikely they'll change that for a LONG time.